Scenario Analysis of the Potential for CO 2 Emission Reduction in the Iranian Cement Industry

This article investigates the impact of various policies on the reduction of CO2 emissions from Iranian cement industry using a long range energy alternative planning (LEAP) model. A Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario for the existing Iranian cement industry was applied. Moreover, the current and future demands for the cement industry were defined for 2005-2020. The current and future productivity of the cement industry was predicted in the BAU scenario. Then, three alternative scenarios were considered: replacement of heavy oil with natural gas, implementation of energy efficiency policies and integrated emission reduction, which includes all of the options over a 15-year period. The results indicated that in 2020, CO2 equivalent emissions would reach 61 million tons in the baseline scenario and 53 million tons in the integrated emission reduction scenario. If fuel switching were employed, the emissions would reach 58 million tons (4.9 % reduction) and in the energy efficiency scenario, the emissions would reach 55 million tons (9.8% reduction) in 2020. Therefore, the integrated scenario reduces the total CO2 equivalent emissions by 8 million tons (13% emission reduction).