THE ESTIMATION OF SECOND-ROUND EFFECTS OF GAS SUPPLY DISLOCATION FROM RUSSIA TO THE EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES THROUGH UKRAINE IN JANUARY 2009

As the January 2009 Ukraine-Russia gas dispute showed, gas disruption is not always accompanied by an increase in gas prices. In this case equilibrium models based on changes in prices do not offer a basis for the assessment of costs related to disruption. The main objective of this article is to estimate and compare macroeconomic costs of gas disruption as approximation of GDP not generated due to disruption in a transparent and consistent way. The estimation of the cost of past or potential future disruptions could be used as benchmark for necessary new infrastructure investments.