CO2 abatement potential towards 2050 for shipping, including alternative fuels.

Background: Recent studies have demonstrated a cost-effective potential to reduce the CO2 emissions in the existing world shipping fleet by 15%, and by 30% for the 2030 fleet. Methods & results: CO2 abatement pathways for shipping towards 2050 have been modeled, using a new probabilistic model. In addition to measures analyzed in the past, the uptake of alternative fuels is modeled. The results show that with uptake of operational and technical measures, as well as biofuels and liquefied natural gas, the cost-effective CO2 reduction potential in 2050 is in the order of 50%. Conclusion: For shipping to substantially contribute to a 2 degrees C pathway, a financial incentive for biofuel is one alterative, but nuclear power in large ships could also cut emissions drastically.