Regional Climate Change Evidenced by Recent Shifts in Chironomid Community Composition in Subalpine and Alpine Lakes in the Great Basin of the United States

Chironomids (nonbiting midges) are used to develop centennial length temperature reconstructions for six subalpine and alpine lakes in the central Great Basin of the United States. Faunal turnover, assessed by detrended correspondence analysis (DCA), indicate that substantial compositional change in the midge communities has occurred during the past 100 years. Although the changes in composition are site-specific, increases in Dicrotendipes and decreases in Procladius characterize the late 20th century at a majority of the sites. Notable faunal turnover in midge community composition is observed at five of the six sites beginning at approximately A.D. 1970. Application of a chironomid-based mean July air temperature inference model (r(jack)(2) = 0.55, RMSEP = 0.9 degrees C) to the sub-fossil chironomid assemblages provides site-specific quantitative reconstructions of past temperature variability for the 20th and 21st centuries. Midge-inferred temperature estimates indicate that four of the six lakes were characterized by above average air temperatures during the post A.D. 1980 interval and below average temperatures during the early 20th century. The rate of temperature change between A.D. 1920 and A.D. 2010 for these four lakes are: Smith Lake = 0.6 degrees C 100 yr(-1); Birdeye Lake = 0.7 degrees C 100 yr(-1); Cold Lake = 1.2 degrees C 100 yr(-1); Stella Lake = 0.4 degrees C 100 yr(-1). Correspondence between fluctuations in the midge-inferred temperature and instrumental measures of mean July air temperature for Nevada Climate Division #2 is also documented. This study adds to the growing body of evidence that subalpine and alpine lakes in the Intermountain West of the United States have been and are increasingly being affected by anthropogenic climate change in the early 21st century.