The Effect of Greenhouse Gas–Induced Changes in SST on the Annual Cycle of Zonal Mean Tropical Precipitation

Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) project changes to the seasonality of both tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation when forced by an increase in greenhouse gases. Nearly all models project an amplification and a phase delay of the annual cycle for both quantities, indicating a greater annual range and extrema reached later in the year. The authors investigate the nature of the seasonal precipitation changes in AGCM experiments forced by SST perturbations, which represent idealizations of the changes in annual mean, amplitude, and phase as simulated by CMIP5 models. A uniform SST warming is sufficient to force both amplification and a delay of the annual cycle of precipitation. The amplification is due to an increase in the annual mean vertical water vapor gradient, while the delay is affected by changes in the seasonality of the circulation. A budget analysis of this simulation reveals a large degree of similarity with the CMIP5 results. In the second experiment, only the seasonal characteristics of SST are changed. In response to an amplified annual cycle of SST, the annual cycle of precipitation is amplified, while for a delayed SST, the annual cycle of precipitation is delayed. Assuming that SST changes can entirely explain the seasonal precipitation changes, the AGCM simulations herein suggest that the annual mean warming explains most of the amplitude increase and much of the phase delay in the CMIP5 models. However, imperfect agreement between the changes in the SST-forced AGCM simulations and the CMIP5 coupled simulations suggests that coupled effects may play a significant role.