Simulation model for guiding Lebanon's post-war reconstruction

This paper describes a pilot model, NRDM-2 for National Reconstruction and Development Model Version Two, the harbinger of a package of interactive national, regional, and sectoral computer models to be used to guide reconstruction and development in Lebanon. NRDM-2 is displayed in the form of a causal diagram in Fig. 3.1. The model is comprised of 12 sectors: Manufacturing, Business, Infrastructure, Manpower, Government Services, Agriculture, Population, Utilities, Highways, Housing, Trade-Energy, and Socio-Economic Indicators. There are 435 equations expressed in the DYNAMO simulation language. The objective aspects of Lebanon's development are contained in the relationships between the variables. Knowing the values of the 435 parameters at the initial year 1980 permits their calculation at consecutive years for the next 50 years. The subjective aspects of Lebanon's development are dealt with in the way the model is used to analyze possible future development alternatives using scenario analysis. Three basic scenarios identified for investigation are: (1) Base (No-War) Scenario, (2) No Reconciliation or Reconstruction Scenario, and (3) Reconstruction and Reconciliation Scenario.