Predicting response to radical (chemo)radiotherapy with circulating HPV DNA in locally advanced head and neck squamous carcinoma

Background: Following chemo-radiotherapy (CCRT) for human papilloma virus positive (HPV+) locally advanced head and neck cancer, patients frequently undergo unnecessary neck dissection (ND) and/or repeated biopsies for abnormal PET-CT, which causes significant morbidity. We assessed the role of circulating HPV DNA in identifying ‘true’ residual disease. Methods: We prospectively recruited test ( n =55) and validation ( n =33) cohorts. HPV status was confirmed by E7 RT-PCR. We developed a novel amplicon-based next generation sequencing assay (HPV16-detect) to detect circulating HPV DNA. Circulating HPV DNA levels post-CCRT were correlated to disease response (PET-CT). Results: In pre-CCRT plasma, HPV-detect demonstrated 100% sensitivity and 93% specificity, and 90% sensitivity and 100% specificity for the test (27 HPV+) and validation (20 HPV+) cohorts, respectively. Thirty-six out of 37 patients (test and validation cohort) with complete samples-set had negative HPV-detect at end of treatment. Six patients underwent ND (3) and repeat primary site biopsies (3) for positive PET-CT but had no viable tumour. One patient had positive HPV-detect and positive PET-CT and liver biopsy, indicating 100% agreement for HPV-detect and residual cancer. Conclusions: We demonstrate that HPV16-detect is a highly sensitive and specific test for identification of HPV DNA in plasma at diagnosis. HPV DNA post-treatment correlates with clinical response.