Predicting Intent Using Activity Logs: How Goal Specificity and Temporal Range Affect User Behavior.

People have different intents in using online platforms. They may be trying to accomplish specific, short-term goals, or less well-defined, longer-term goals. While understanding user intent is fundamental to the design and personalization of online platforms, little is known about how intent varies across individuals, or how it relates to their behavior. Here, we develop a framework for understanding intent in terms of goal specificity and temporal range. Our methodology combines survey-based methodology with an observational analysis of user activity. Applying this framework to Pinterest, we surveyed nearly 6000 users to quantify their intent, and then studied their subsequent behavior on the web site. We find that goal specificity is bimodal - users tend to be either strongly goal-specific or goal-nonspecific. Goal-specific users search more and consume less content in greater detail than goal-nonspecific users: they spend more time using Pinterest, but are less likely to return in the near future. Users with short-term goals are also more focused and more likely to refer to past saved content than users with long-term goals, but less likely to save content for the future. Further, intent can vary by demographic, and with the topic of interest. Last, we show that user's intent and activity are intimately related by building a model that can predict a user's intent for using Pinterest after observing their activity for only two minutes. Altogether, this work shows how intent can be predicted from user behavior.