Trend of Cesarean Section and Natural Childbirth in Governmental and Private Hospitals during 2007-2014 and its 2021 Forecast in Mazandaran Province, Iran

Background and purpose: Investigating and forecasting the different methods of labor can improve the knowledge about health problems in the future and the ability to develop effective interventions and prepare relevant resources. This study aimed at determining the trend and forecasting for cesarean section (c-section) and natural child birth in Mazandaran province, Iran. Materials and methods: A longitudinal study was performed using all registered data regarding labors in governmental and private maternities in Mazandaran province. The number of childbirth from 2007 to 2014 were entered into SPSS 16 software. The best model was selected based on autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation diagrams in Ljung-Box significance level as well as the least AIC. Results: The corresponding figures for 2007 to 2021 for cesarean and natural child birth were 19245, 15770 and 14382, 16385, respectively. The growth rate in private sectors was 17.7% (from 20072008). These rates were also observed to be 5.8% and 12.3% in 2013 and 2014, respectively. The results of forecasting revealed delivery growth in private sectors until 2021. Conclusion: The c-section rate would decrease to 35% in 2021 if the healthcare reform interventions continue. This rate is still much more than the optimal c-section rate recommended by World Health Organization.