Impact of transit-oriented development policy scenarios on travel demand measures of mode share, trip distance and highway usage in Maryland

This paper aims to evaluate and compare impacts of two alternative Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) policies, concentrating growth of population or employment opportunities in transit service area, on travel demand measures of mode share, trip distance and highway usage. A validated Maryland Statewide Transportation Model (MSTM) is employed to forecast changes in travel demand measures under various TOD policy scenarios in a future year of 2030. The model simulation results show either concentrating population or employment policy has similar impacts on raising transit mode share and reducing auto mode share. However, concentrating population policy decreases average trip distance while concentrating employment policy increases it. Consequently, concentrating population policy reduces highway usage, measured by Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT), more effectively than concentrating employment policy in this specific region given the existing land use pattern. The findings in this paper have important implications to urban planners, transportation planners and decision makers in Maryland of US. The paper also provides a good example for applying a travel demand model to evaluate and compare alternative TOD policies based on travel demand measures.