Cost-benefit analysis of vaccine-based interventions to control pandemic influenza

Chicago was selected to study the impact of vaccination intervention on different severity of pandemic influenza. We use a collocation based synthetic social contact network, generated for the city of Chicago, using the methodology explained in [2–4]. The transmission dynamics of the influenza-like-illness in the population is simulated using the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model. We use an agent-based model to compare the costs and benefits of vaccine-based interventions under different transmission scenarios during an influenza pandemic. For the base case, three different forms of pandemic influenza were designed: Moderate influenza: 28.9% cumulative infection rate Strong influenza: 38.6% cumulative infection rate Catastrophic influenza: 58.1% cumulative infection rate Influenza associated outcomes include: death, hospitalization, outpatient visit, and illness (without medical care). Vaccine intervention: 40% of population is vaccinated, and vaccine efficacy is 40%. Figures 2 and 3 illustrate the direct and indirect impacts of vaccination. Vaccination of 40% of the population results in 19.84% (range: 17.41%-23.84%) reduction in the attack rate of influenza in the dynamic model, compared to 6.77% (range: 4.7%, 9.4%) reduction in the attack rate in the static model [1]. In summary, vaccination results in 46.8% (range: 26.0%, 69.2%) higher net return per capita in the dynamic model in comparison to the static model.