Beneficial Health Benefits from Global Warming in Taiwan

ISEE-827 Objective: This study analyzed the change of mortality from cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, diabetes mellitus, and renal failure associated with increasing temperature resulted from global warming in 3 major metros (Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung) in Taiwan, 1993 to 2003. Materials and Methods: Death records were obtained from Department of Health, and weather measurements from 1960 to 2003 were provided by Central Weather Bureau. Monthly average temperatures were compared with standardized value [(T measure − T average)/T average] between 1960 to 1990 and 1993 to 2003 and the mortalities were evaluated by season. Disease-specific mortalities for population aged ≥40 years were measured based on ICD 9th revision. In addition to age and sex, we also controlled for monthly mortality from co-morbidities, air pollutants (PM10, SO2, NOx, CO, O3), barometric pressure, and relative humidity in the Poisson regression for each city. Results: The warm winter days seemed more frequently in 1993 to 2003 than in 1960 to 1990 in Taiwan. Beneficial health effects in winter mortalities by rising temperature were observed in more temperate cities (Taipei and Taichung), compared with Kaohsiung (subtropical city). The relative risks (RR) of 1 standardized value of average temperature increase in winter for ischemic heart disease were 0.227 (95% CI: 0.082–0.628, P = 0.0043) in Taipei and 0.094 (95% CI: 0.009–0.935, P = 0.0436) in Taichung, 0.115 (95% CI: 0.017–0.764, P = 0.0252) for hypertensive diseases in Taipei and 0.211 (95% CI: 0.049–0.914, P = 0.0375) for pneumonia and influenza in Taipei. There was no significant effect observed in summer mortalities. Conclusions: In contrast to impacts from heat wave, people in the subtropical area like Taiwan may release some cold waves and enjoy a beneficial effect of mild winters associated with the global warming phenomenon.