A physically-based model of long-term food demand

•Our new food demand model includes local income inequality and income-based food wastage for the first time.•Global crop and grass demand could increase from 5.5 to 10.9Gton during 2011–2050 (SSP-2).•Consumption inequality within regions is of the same magnitude as the inequality between regions.•Global undernourishment drops from 700 million people in 2015 to 270 in 2050, but only if supply increases to meet demand.•Overall efficiency can be improved much more by targeting animal-centric diets rather than food waste.