Abstract 13495: Ambulatory Blood Pressure Characteristics and Long-Term Risk for Atrial Fibrillation

Introduction: Data on the significance of different ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) characteristics in predicting long-term risk for atrial fibrillation (AF) are limited. Methods: Total of 903 subjects with or without hypertension aged from 40 to 59 years, who were recruited to the OPERA (Oulu Project Elucidating Risk of Atherosclerosis) study, had ABP monitoring, underwent thorough clinical examinations and laboratory tests. Results: After an average 16.4 ± 3.6 years of follow-up, 91 (10%) of the study subjects had experienced a new-onset AF requiring a hospital visit. Of the components of baseline ABP, the night-time mean systolic blood pressure had the strongest univariate association with the occurrence of AF (120.8 ±15.9 vs. 116.4 ± 14.1 mmHg, p=0.005, in subjects with vs. without the occurrence AF). When the univariate predictors of AF, such as age, sex, body mass index, height, smoking history, alanine aminotransferase and uric acid, were entered in the multivariate Cox hazards model, age (HR=1.1, 95% CIs=1.06-1.15, p<0.001) and body mass index (HR=1.06, 95% CIs=1.015-1.115, p=0.011) retained their significant predictive power. After adjustments in this clinical hazards model, the night-time mean systolic blood pressure still predicted the occurrence of AF (HR=1.014, 95% CIs=1.001-1.028, p=0.038). The blood pressure night-time dipping status was not associated with the occurrence of AF (p=0.41). Conclusion: Of the ABP characteristics, the night-time systolic blood pressure is a significant independent contributor to the long-term risk of new-onset AF.