Bayesian Estimation of Gaussian Graphical Models with Projection Predictive Selection

Gaussian graphical models are used for determining conditional relationships between variables. This is accomplished by identifying off-diagonal elements in the inverse-covariance matrix that are non-zero. When the ratio of variables (p) to observations (n) approaches one, the maximum likelihood estimator of the covariance matrix becomes unstable and requires shrinkage estimation. Whereas several classical (frequentist) methods have been introduced to address this issue, Bayesian methods remain relatively uncommon in practice and methodological literatures. Here we introduce a Bayesian method for estimating sparse matrices, in which conditional relationships are determined with projection predictive selection. Through simulation and an applied example, we demonstrate that the proposed method often outperforms both classical and alternative Bayesian estimators with respect to frequentist risk and consistently made the fewest false positives.We end by discussing limitations and future directions, as well as contributions to the Bayesian literature on the topic of sparsity.