Estimating interspecific economic risk of bird strikes with aircraft: Bird Strike Risk

The International Civil Aviation Organization promotes prioritization of wildlife management on airports, among other safety issues, by emphasizing the risk of wildlife-aircraft collisions (strikes). In its basic form, strike risk comprises a frequency component (i.e., how often strikes occur) and a severity component reflecting the cost of the incident. However, there is no widely accepted formula for estimating strike risk. Our goal was to develop a probabilistic risk metric that is adaptable for airports to use. Our specific objectives were to 1) update species-specific, relative hazard scores (i.e., the likelihood of aircraft damage or effect on flight when strikes occur) using recent U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) wildlife strike data (2010-2015); 2) develop 4 a priori risk models, reflecting species-specific strike data and updated relative hazard scores; 3) test these models against independent data (monetary costs associated with strikes); and 4) apply our best model to strike data from 4 large, FAA-certificated airports to illustrate its application at the local level. Our best-fitting risk model included an independent variable that was an interaction of quadratic transformed relative hazard score and number of wildlife strikes (r(2) = 0.74). Top species in terms of estimated risk nationally were red-tailed hawk (Buteo jamaicensis), Canada goose (Branta canadensis), turkey vulture (Cathartes aura), rock pigeon (Columba livia), and mourning dove (Zenaida macroura). We found substantial overlap among the top 5 riskiest species locally across 3 of 4 airports considered, illustrating the degree of site-specific differences that affect risk. Strike risk is dynamic; therefore, future work on risk estimation should allow for model adjustment to reflect ongoing wildlife management actions at airports that could influence future strike risk. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.