Southwestern white pine (Pinus strobiformis) species distribution models project a large range shift and contraction due to regional climatic changes

•A warmer and drier future climate may pose extreme risk of drought stress.•Winter warming may cause failure to meet the chilling requirement for budburst.•As a result, the southwestern white pine distribution will shift dramatically by 2080.•The range shift of this keystone species may have profound ecological consequences.•Our results inform management and conservation efforts to mitigate these threats.