Optimization of satellite constellation deployment strategy considering uncertain areas of interest

This paper presents an integrated framework to design a flexible multi-stage telecommunication satellite configuration deployment strategy considering the uncertainties in the evolution of the areas of interest over time. The constructed stochastic demand model considers multiple possible scenarios for the evolution of the areas of interest with probabilities based on the market share growth in each area. The optimization aims to find each stage's design with minimum expected lifecycle cost considering all possible scenarios. Each stage of the constellation, assumed to be Flower constellation with circular orbits, provides a regional coverage of the current area of interest as well as additional coverage for the potential future areas of interest. The proposed multi-stage satellite constellation enables the constellation designer to react flexibly and efficiently to the uncertain future expansion of the areas of interest. A case study reveals a reduction in the expected lifecycle cost for an optimized system compared with the all-in-single-stage system and global coverage constellation.