Wind power variability and power system reserves in South Africa

Variable renewable generation, primarily from wind and solar, introduces new uncertainties in the operation of power systems. This paper describes and applies a method to quantify how wind power development will affect the use of short-term automatic reserves in the future South African power system. The study uses a scenario for wind power development in South Africa, based on information from the South African transmission system operator (Eskom) and the Department of Energy. The scenario foresees 5% wind power penetration by 2025. Time series for wind power production and forecasts are simulated, and the duration curves for wind power ramp rates and wind power forecast errors are applied to assess the use of reserves due to wind power variability. The main finding is that the 5% wind power penetration in 2025 will increase the use of short-term automatic reserves by approximately 2%.