Predicting replication outcomes in the Many Labs 2 study

Eskil Forsell,Domenico Viganola,Thomas Pfeiffer,Johan Almenberg,Brad Wilson,Yiling Chen,Brian A. Nosek,Magnus Johannesson,Anna Dreber

Journal of Economic Psychology（2019）

引用 43|浏览21

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摘要

•Psychologists participated in prediction markets to predict replication outcomes.•Prediction markets correctly predicted 75% of the replication outcomes.•Prediction markets performed better than survey data in predicting replication outcomes.•Survey data performed better in predicting relative effect size of the replications.

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关键词

Reproducibility,Replications,Prediction markets,Beliefs

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