Canadian boreal forest greening and browning trends: an analysis of biogeographic patterns and the relative roles of disturbance versus climate drivers

Recent studies have used satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series to explore geographic patterns in boreal forest greening and browning. A number of these studies indicate that boreal forests are experiencing widespread browning, and have suggested that these patterns reflect decreases in forest productivity induced by climate change. Here we use NDVI time series from Landsat, which has much higher quality and spatial resolution than imagery used in most previous studies, to characterize biogeographic patterns in greening and browning across Canada's boreal forest and to explore the drivers behind observed trends. Our results show that the majority of NDVI changes in Canada's boreal forest reflect disturbance-recovery dynamics not climate change impacts, that greening and browning trends outside of disturbed forests are consistent with expected ecological responses to regional changes in climate, and that observed NDVI changes are geographically limited and relatively small in magnitude. By examining covariance between changes in NDVI and temperature and precipitation in locations not affected by disturbance, our results isolate and characterize the nature and magnitude of greening and browning directly associated with climate change. Consistent with biogeographic theory, greening and browning unrelated to disturbance tended to be located in ecotones near boundaries of the boreal forest bioclimatic envelope. We observed greening to be most prevalent in Eastern Canada, which is more humid, and browning to be most prevalent in Western Canada, where forests are more prone to moisture stress. We conclude that continued long-term climate change has the potential to significantly alter the character and function of Canada's boreal forest, but recent changes have been modest and near-term impacts are likely to be focused in or near ecotones.