EBITDA Time Series Forecasting Case study: Provincial Waterworks Authority

EBITDA is a measure of a company’s financial performance. It can determine the direction of business decisions for the organization, can be used to analyze and compare profitability among companies. By its linear and non-linear combination, appropriate forecasting technique must be determined. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for forecasting EBITDA. We propose a three-steps methodology which is composed of data preparation, forecasting model comparison and evaluation steps. The results from using 10 years monthly data of the Provincial Waterworks Authority (PWA) reveal that the best model is ARIMA-ANN hybrid model. Thus, this model can be used to forecast the other time series data such as Selling Expenses, Operating Expense, General and Administrative Expenses in the future.