Bayesian modeling of volatile organic compound emissions from three softwoods in Hokkaido, Japan

We used a small chamber method to examine volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions such as α-pinene, β-pinene, and limonene, from three softwood species in Hokkaido, northern Japan. Tests were conducted for 4 weeks to investigate how the rate of VOC emission changed over time. All VOC emission rates rapidly decreased and could be explained by the sum of two exponential functions. The model was rewritten as a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the change in emission rates over time to estimate both intraspecies and interspecies variations. The Markov chain Monte Carlo method was then used to estimate the parameters. Posterior distributions over time were also predicted for VOC emission rates. Then VOC concentrations were simulated using the estimated posterior distributions for a typical room size (30 m 3 ). Our results suggest that high VOC concentrations would shortly occur after installation of wood furnishings, even with adequate ventilation, and that those peak values would exhibit large variations. However, the variations would decrease over time to species-specific VOC concentrations. The model incorporated rather simplified assumptions due to small amount of data used. More intense investigations are needed to gain more accurate and objective predictions.