An evaluation of Scottish woodland grant schemes using site suitability modelling

•We evaluate woodland expansion since 1989 using site suitability modelling.•Local climate will constrain establishment or growth for unsuitable species.•88–97% of new woodland is located on suitable sites; this has improved over time.•Higher suitability is concurrent with increased emphasis on ecological modelling.•Forester use of modelling remains low; greater emphasis is placed on experience.