Surge Development In The Western Sector Of The Vavilov Ice Cap, Severnaya Zemlya, 1963-2017

The glaciers and ice caps in the Arctic are experiencing noticeable changes which are manifested, in particular, in the intensification of their dynamic instability. In this paper we present data on a large-scale surge in the Western basin of the Vavilov ice dome on the archipelago Severnaya Zemlya, derived from satellite images and supplemented by airborne RES-2014 and available publications. Analysis of 28 space images of 1963-2017 demonstrated that the surge developed over the whole period. In the first decade (1963-1973), the advance was very slow - from 2-5 to 12 m/year. Since the 1980-ies, the ice movement began to accelerate from tens to a hundred of meters per a year in the 2000-ies. The sudden change happened in the year 2012 when the surge front began to move already at speeds of about 0.5 km/year. In 2015, the volume of advanced part reached almost 4 km(3). Maximal speed 9.2 km/year was recorded in 2016. From 1963 to 2017, the edge of the glacier advanced by 11.7 km, and its area increased by 134.1 km(2) (by 47% relative to the basin area of 1963), that caused spreading of crevasse zone up the glacier. Surface speeds reached a maximum of 25.4 m/day in 2016 and decreased to 7.6 m/day in 2017. The authors suggest that the initial activation of the southern and western edges of the ice dome could be a reaction to the climate signal, possibly occurred several centuries ago. The ice crevassing and cryo-hydrological warming of ice, enhanced by positive feedback, resulted in instability of the glacier and the displacement of the edge of the ice belt containing moraine and frozen to the bed, which transformed into a catastrophic movement. The surge was facilitated by change of bedrock conditions as the ice lobe progressed offshore from permafrost coastal zone to the area of loose marine bottom sediments with low shear strength. The surge seems to be also stimulated by anomalously warm summer of 2012.