Tailoring Surveillance Colonoscopy in Patients with Advanced Adenomas

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with advanced colorectal adenomas (AAs) are directed to undergo intensive surveillance. However, the benefit derived from surveillance may be outweighed by the risk of death from noncolorectal cancer (CRC) causes, leading to uncertainty on how best to individualize follow-up. The aim of this study was to derive a risk prediction model and risk index that estimate and stratify the risk for non-CRC cancer mortality (NCM) subsequent to diagnosis and removal of AA. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of veterans >= 40 years old who had colonoscopy for diagnostic or screening indications at 13 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers between 2002 and 2009 and had 1 or more AAs. The primary outcome was NCM using a fixed follow-up time period of 5 years. Logistic regression using the lasso technique was used to identify factors independently associated with NCM, and an index based on points from regression coefficients was constructed to estimate risk of 5-year NCM. RESULTS: We identified 2943 veterans with AA (mean age [standard deviation] 63 [8.6] years, 98% male, 74% white), with an overall 5-year mortality of 16.7%, which was nearly all due to NCM (16.6%). Age, comorbidity burden, specific comorbid conditions, and hospitalization within the preceding year were independently associated with NCM. The risk prediction model had a goodness of fit (calibration) P value of .41 and c-statistic (discrimination) of 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.76). On the basis of comparable 5-year risks of NCM, the scores comprised 3 risk categories: low (score of 0-1), intermediate (score of 2-4), and high (score of >= 5), in which NCM occurred in 6.5%, 14.1%, and 33.2%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We derived a risk prediction model that identifies veterans with advanced adenomas who are at high risk of NCM within 5 years, and who are thus unlikely to benefit from further surveillance.