The Economic Impacts of Restrictions on the Transportation of Petroleum Coke

Petroleum coke is the third leading refined petroleum product export from the US behind distillate fuel oil. Legal challenges and proposals could either increase the cost or restrict the transportation of petroleum coke. This paper develops an econometric model of world markets for refined petroleum markets to estimate the effects of such restrictions. The model is used to estimate how supply, demand, trade flows, and prices would adjust under a shutdown of US petroleum coke production. The market impacts are significant, withsubstantially higher prices for jet fuel and petroleum coke, significantly higher prices for gasoline and other products, and sharply lower prices for residual fuel oil. Over a four-year simulation of the model, the US petroleum trade balance deteriorates by $85 billion and consumers pay over $187 and $376 billion more for refined petroleum products in the US and the rest of the world respectively.