Incidence and risk factors of PostopeRativE Delirium in Intensive Care unit patients: a study protocol for the PREDICt study.

Aim The aims of this study are: (a) to determine the incidence of postoperative delirium (POD) among surgical intensive care unit (ICU) patients in China and identify risk factors, especially, which are modifiable and have value for developing a prediction model; (b) to develop and validate a prediction model of delirium to recognize high-risk patients in surgical ICUs; (c) to investigate the short- and long-term outcomes of delirious patients and identify the predictors of patient outcomes. Design A single-centre prospective cohort study. Methods Patients will be enrolled from three surgical ICUs in a tertiary teaching hospital. Delirium assessment and perioperative data will be collected throughout the hospitalization. Delirious patients will be followed up for 2 years. The study was approved by the ethics committee in May 2018 and was funded by the clinical research grant from Zhongshan hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai. Discussion Developing POD can be a burden to patients both for the short- and long-term period. Due to the lack of effective treatments for POD, prevention remains the best strategy. This study will provide an effective tool for early screening of high-risk patients of POD and provide a better understanding of the aetiology and outcome of delirium. Impact In clinical practice, a prediction model will offer an effective tool for ICU nurses to assess high-risk patients, which can support them to implement preventive strategies at the early stages to targeted patients. The follow-up results will help us better understand the impact of delirium on patients' long-term outcome.