Sa1793 – Evaluation of the 10-Year Cardiovascular Disease Death Risk in Greek Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease

is stable from 2010 to 2015 (AAPC= -2.00, 95%CI: -4.15, 0.20) (Table 1).However, the subtype-specific incidence of IBD in adults is decreasing for both CD (AAPC = -5.50;95%CI: -7.71, -3.23) and UC (AAPC = -4.78;95%CI: -8.57, -0.84).Figure 1 illustrates the historical and forecasted incidence of IBD, CD, and UC.The SMR is 1.41 (95%CI: 1.34, 1.48) for IBD, 1.48 (95%CI: 1.38, 1.59) for CD, and 1.20 (95%CI: 1.09, 1.31) for UC.The threshold whereby incidence approximates mortality such that it would stabilize the prevalence of IBD is 7.82 per 100,000.Based on our forecasting models, the incidence of IBD (21.63 per 100,000; 95%PI: 10.85, 32.41) exceeds this threshold in 2030.Conclusions: The 2030 forecasted incidence (21.6 per 100,000 persons) exceeds the threshold required to reduce the prevalence of IBD.Future interventional research focused on prevention is urgently required to mitigate the rising burden of IBD.