An area-based modelling approach for planning heating electrification

Heat decarbonisation is the biggest challenge facing UK energy policy. This paper presents an area-based modelling approach to heat electrification using 17,741 dwellings in the city of Newcastle upon Tyne as a case study. The presented framework has been developed so as to address local energy policy questions on the impact of domestic electrical heating options. These questions reflect significant under-researched challenges such as the quantification of peak electricity demand for heat pumps based electrification options. The presented results show that the electrification of heat at city-scale will have a substantial impact on the local electrical grid infrastructure and provide a first indication of what the potential additional mean and (winter) peak household electricity demand ranges (i.e. 59–95%. This is significantly lower than what might be ascertained from existing literature). Furthermore, the results show that emission savings will be achieved with all electrification options studied but achieving the city's ambitious decarbonisation goals will require more exploration of the urban energy landscape. The paper further underpins the significance of sub-city modelling by enabling policy makers to identify housing neighbourhoods at LV sub-station for area-based delivery. Finally, an integrated modelling approach to cope with forthcoming energy system design challenges at LV scale is suggested.