Model-based Assessment of the Effect of Contact Precautions Applied to Surveillance-detected Carriers of Carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae in Long-term Acute Care Hospitals.

Background. An intervention that successfully reduced colonization and infection with carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) in Chicago-area long-term acute-care hospitals included active surveillance and contact precautions. However, the specific effects of contact precautions applied to surveillance-detected carriers on patient-to-patient transmission are unknown, as other, concurrent intervention components or changes in facility patient dynamics also could have affected the observed outcomes. Methods. Using previously published data from before and after the CPE intervention, we designed a mathematical model with an explicit representation of postintervention surveillance. We estimated preintervention to postintervention changes of 3 parameters: beta, the baseline transmission rate excluding contact precaution effects; delta(b), the rate of a CPE carrier progressing to bacteremia; and delta(c), the progression rate to nonbacteremia clinical detection. Results. Assuming that CPE carriers under contact precautions transmit carriage to other patients at half the rate of undetected carriers, the model produced no convincing evidence for a postintervention change in the baseline transmission rate beta (+2.1% [95% confidence interval {CI}, -18% to +28%]). The model did find evidence of a postintervention decrease for delta(b) (-41% [95% CI, -60% to -18%]), but not for delta(c) (-7% [95% CI, -28% to +19%]). Conclusions. Our results suggest that contact precautions for surveillance-detected CPE carriers could potentially explain the observed decrease in colonization by itself, even under conservative assumptions for the effectiveness of those precautions for reducing cross-transmission. Other intervention components such as daily chlorhexidine gluconate bathing of all patients and hand-hygiene education and adherence monitoring may have contributed primarily to reducing rates of colonized patients progressing to bacteremia.