First-Order Seismic Loss Assessment at Urban Scale: A Case Study of Skopje, North Macedonia
JOURNAL OF EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING(2022)
摘要
Relatively simple method for seismic loss assessment is presented based on probabilistic hazard, event scenarios and local building inventory. EMS98-dependent vulnerability model is transformed to continuous fragility functions correlating damage probability to peak ground acceleration. The proposed method illustrated over 59,950 inventoried buildings and evaluated with replacement cost of $25.5B. For a repeat of the M6.1 1963 earthquake, simulations predict immediate losses of about $6.8B and 1,908 red-tagged buildings, compared to about $5B and 15,800 red-tagged building at the time. Average losses from probabilistic scenarios range from $1.6B (return period of 100y) to $17.8B (10,000y).
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关键词
Seismic Hazard, Building Inventory, Fragility Function, Economic Loss, Damage State
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