Predicting poor outcomes and the need for surgical treatment in neonates with meconium peritonitis.

Objective The objective of this study is to determine factors associated with poor outcomes and the need for surgical treatment in neonates with meconium peritonitis (MP). Methods We evaluated the association between prenatal ultrasound features, maternal characteristics, and the likelihood of surgery, mortality, and serious morbidity in 49 neonates with a prenatal diagnosis of MP, who were born in Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center between January 2011 and December 2016. Results Thirty of 49 neonates (61.2%) required surgical treatment, and 17 (34.7%) had a poor outcome. Independent predictors of need for surgical treatment were polyhydramnios, maternal intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy (associated with lower risk), and persistence of peritoneal fluid. The model correctly predicted 70.0% of the neonates who required surgery (at a 10% false-positive rate; area under the curve [AUC]: 0.86 [95% CI, 0.75-0.97]). For poor outcomes, independent predictors were low gestational age at birth, persistence of peritoneal fluid, and polyhydramnios. For the latter, the model only achieved a detection rate of 52.9% (10% false-positive rate, AUC: 0.82 [95% CI, 0.70-0.94]). Conclusions A combination of prenatal ultrasound features and maternal characteristics correctly predicted 70.0% the need for neonatal surgery. Prediction of poor outcome-based prenatal ultrasound features and gestational age did not perform well.