Modifiable predictors of severe heart failure in Morocco: a descriptive study using routinely collected health data.

Introduction: Heart Failure (HF) is a growing public health concern in Morocco and there is a striking paucity on determinants of severe HF (SHF) in this population. The aim of this study was to identify patients admitted with HF at Ibn Rochd Hospital, Casablanca from 2011 onwards, when electronic record keeping began. Methods: a total of 105 patients underwent a series of cardiological examinations between July 2011 and January 2014. The New York Heart Association (NYHA) criteria was used to evaluate the severity of HF. Patients with NYHA classification gradings of I and II were defined as having moderate HF (MHF) and those graded as III and IV were defined as having a SHF. Univariable and multivariable risk factors associated with SHF were explored using logistic regression. The results were reported following the RECORD (Reporting of studies Conducted using Observational Routinely-collected Data) statement. Results: a total of 24 (33%) patients were identified as having a SHF. Four predictors of SHF were identified in univariate analysis: haemoglobin <12g/dL, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) >3, mean corpuscular haemoglobin concentration (MCHC) <32 picolitre, and high density lipoprotein (HDL) <0.35 (mmol/L). Only NLR>3 and HDL <0.35 mmol/L remained independent predictors in multivariable analysis. Patients with NLR >3 were at 6-fold increased odds of SHF [adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 6.78, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.40-32.80, p=0.017], and those with HDL<0.35 (mmol/L) were at 10-fold increased odds of SHF [AOR: 10.11, 95% CI: 2.26-45.27, p=0.002]. Conclusion: the independent biomarkers of SHF identified in this study provide valuable information to ward clinicians in resource-constrained facilities to identify patients vulnerable to developing severe heart complications.