A prognostic model for hepatitis B acute-on-chronic liver failure patients treated using a plasma exchange-centered liver support system.

Aim To determine the prognostic risk factors of patients with hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) treated with plasma exchange (PE)-based artificial liver support system (ALSS), and create a prognostic predictive model. Methods A total of 304 HBV-ACLF patients who received PE-based ALSS were retrospectively analyzed. Potential prognostic factors on admission associated with survival were investigated. Of note, 101 additional patients were analyzed to validate the performance of the prognostic models. Results According to 28-day survival, a total of 207 patients who survived and 97 non-survivors were identified in the derivation group. Overall, 268 (88.2%) ACLF cases were caused by reactivation of HBV. Cox proportional hazards regression model revealed that age, total bilirubin, ln (alpha-fetoprotein [AFP]), encephalopathy (HE) score, sodium level, and international normalized ratio (INR) were independent risk factors of short-term prognosis. We built a model named ALSS-prognosis model (APM) to predict the 28-day survival of HBV-ACLF patients with ALSS; the model APM showed potentially better predictive performance for both the derivation and validation groups than MELD, MELD-Na, and CLIF-C ACLF score. Conclusions Low AFP was found to be an independent risk factor for high mortality in HBV-ACLF patients treated with PE-based ALSS. We generated a new model containing AFP, namely APM, which showed potentially better prediction performance than MELD, MELD-Na, and CLIF-C ACLF score for short-term outcomes, and could aid physicians in making optimal therapeutic decisions.