Decadal Predictions of the Probability of Occurrence for Warm Summer Temperature Extremes

We use a decadal prediction system with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 version of the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model to predict the probability of occurrence for extremely warm summers in the Northern Hemisphere. An assimilation run with Max Planck Institute Earth System Model shows a robust response of summer temperature extremes in northern Europe and northeast Asia to North Atlantic sea surface temperature via a circumglobal Rossby wavetrain. When the North Atlantic is warm, warm summer temperature extremes occur with a probability of 20% and 24% in northern Europe and northeast Asia, respectively. In a cold North Atlantic phase, these probabilities are 0% and 8%. A similar difference in probability of occurrence is found in the initialized climate predictions. Consequently, the likelihood of a warm summer temperature extreme occurring in the examined regions in the next 10 years can be inferred from predictions of North Atlantic temperature.