PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT CAUSED BY HAZARDOUS CHEMICAL ACCIDENT

Environmental risk assessment is an important part of environmental management research. However, due to uncertainties in the environmental risk system, assessment results may be partially incomplete. This study takes the leakage accident of liquid ammonia as a typical case. By combining the method of Morris parameter sensitivity analysis with the Latin Hypercube Sampling, the probability sampling analysis is conducted on a group of parameters that have the greatest impact on the output of the accident consequence calculation model, as well as a set of radius values for lethal range caused by toxic gas and its probability distribution function are obtained. based on the probability distribution, the author took advantage of the GIS tool to conduct a comprehensive analysis, thereby calculating the indexes that characterize the status of regional environmental risk. The research ideas proposed in this paper have effectively improved the rationality of the selection of the parameters in the uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, the assessment results based on the uncertainty analysis can cover all possible accident scenarios, which not only comprehensively reflects the risk status of emergency environmental accidents, but also provides more scientific and reliable information for environmental management.