On Ridership and Frequency
arxiv(2020)
摘要
Even before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, bus ridership in the United
States had attained its lowest level since 1973. If transit agencies hope to
reverse this trend, they must understand how their service allocation policies
affect ridership. This paper is among the first to model ridership trends on a
hyper-local level over time. A Poisson fixed-effects model is developed to
evaluate the ridership elasticity to frequency on weekdays using passenger
count data from Portland, Miami, Minneapolis/St-Paul, and Atlanta between 2012
and 2018. In every agency, ridership is found to be elastic to frequency when
observing the variation between individual route-segments at one point in time.
In other words, the most frequent routes are already the most productive in
terms of passengers per vehicle-trip. When observing the variation within each
route-segment over time, however, ridership is inelastic; each additional
vehicle-trip is expected to generate less ridership than the average bus
already on the route. In three of the four agencies, the elasticity is a
decreasing function of prior frequency, meaning that low-frequency routes are
the most sensitive to changes in frequency. This paper can help transit
agencies anticipate the marginal effect of shifting service throughout the
network. As the quality and availability of passenger count data improve, this
paper can serve as the methodological basis to explore the dynamics of bus
ridership.
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关键词
ridership,frequency
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