Utility of different dimensional properties of drinking practices to predict stable low-risk drinking outcomes of natural recovery attempts

Background Functional measures indicating lower drinking problem severity predict stable low-risk drinking outcomes of recovery attempts, but findings for drinking practices are mixed. Because low-risk drinking outcomes are more common in natural than treatment-assisted recovery attempts, five studies of natural recovery attempts were integrated. Multiple dimensions of drinking practices during the year before recovery initiation were evaluated as predictors of post-recovery drinking (continuous abstinence, stable low-risk drinking, or unstable recovery involving relapse). Methods Community-dwelling problem drinkers (N = 616, 68% male, mean age = 46.5 years) were enrolled soon after stopping alcohol misuse and followed prospectively for one year. A Timeline Followback interview assessed daily drinking during the year before recovery initiation and yielded four dimensions for analysis: frequency of heavy drinking days (4+/5+ drinks for females/males), mean ethanol consumption per drinking day, variability in days between heavy drinking days, and variability in ethanol consumed per drinking day. Results Multinomial logistic regression models showed that variability in ethanol consumed per drinking day was the sole significant predictor of 1-year outcomes when all dimensions were evaluated together. The low-risk drinker group showed less fluctuation in quantities consumed on pre-recovery drinking days compared to the groups that abstained or relapsed (ps < 0.05). Conclusions Even when drinking heavily, problem drinkers who maintained low-risk drinking recoveries limited their quantities consumed within a relatively narrow range, a pattern they maintained post-recovery at much lower consumption levels. Assessing variability in quantities consumed may aid drinking goal selection.