Effects of china's regional industrial structure adjustment on carbon emission transfer based on gravity model

In China, there exist major differences in both the energy consumption and industrial structure between provinces and cities, leading to carbon emission transfer. Based on inter-provincial trade and industrial transfer, this paper measures the carbon emission transfer of China's sub-sectors and cities in 2007 and 2010 using the inter-provincial input-output model. The results show that, carbon dioxide transfers from economically developed regions and regions with a single industrial structure to economically underdeveloped regions or resource-intensive regions. The embodied carbon emission transfer mainly occurs between provinces and cities in the eastern, central and northeastern regions of China. A gravity model with a direction vector is constructed to analyse the influence of the regional industrial structure distance, environmental regulation distance, technical distance and geographical distance on carbon emission transfer. The results show that: there is a spatial proximity effect in carbon emission transfer; technical distance and industrial structure distance promote carbon emission transfer from economically developed regions to economically underdeveloped regions; the primary industry structure distance has a significant positive impact on the outflow of carbon emissions; The secondary industry structure distance and the carbon emission outflow show an "inverted U-shaped" relationship, while the tertiary industry structure distance and the carbon emission outflow show a "U-shaped" relationship; The carbon emission transfers from regions with strict environmental regulations to regions with loose regulations, thus verifying the existence of the "pollution haven hypothesis". This conclusion provides a reference for rationally dividing the responsibility for carbon emission reduction across various regions.