China's Passenger Transport Energy Demand and CO2 Emission Scenario Analysis

The energy consumption and CO2 emission of China's passenger transport have been increasing in recent years. With China's population, economic development level, passenger volume, public transportation share, private car stock, and new energy vehicle (NEV) policies developing year by year, we need a medium-and longterm model to predict the future energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions of China's passenger transport. In this paper, we divide the passenger transport sector into inter-city and inner-city, then establish a bottom-up model using the LEAP (long-term energy planning system) platform to estimate China’s provincial passenger transport emissions up to 2050. Four scenarios, namely reference (REF), business as usual (BAU), electric vehicles promoting (EVP) are set to evaluate possible policy alternatives. The results show that the BAU scenario and EVP scenario are efficiently reduce the energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Under the BAU scenario and the EVP scenario will reduce 45% and 53% energy consumption respectively. Under the BAU scenario and the EVP scenario will reduce 78% and 91% CO2 emissions respectively. The results show that promoting the development of electric vehicles will help China to achieve the goal of low-carbon transportation.