Determinants of Influenza Mortality Trends in U . S . 1960-2010

The Omran’s epidemiological transition theory has put forward a framework to interpret and accounts for the replacement of infectious diseases by chronic diseases due to expanded public health and sanitation. In this framework, mortality declines from infectious diseases are mainly driven by period factors in the short term, such as environmental changes, medical innovations and public policies. In contrast, chronic and degenerative disease mortality changes are mainly driven by long term cohort factors resulting from both the cumulative risks and cumulative advantages over the life-course (Omran 1971; Olshansky and Ault 1986).