A spatial microsimulation approach to land-use modelling

This paper provides an initial outline of the household location modelling project which the UK Department for Transport has commissioned as part of longer-term research into the factors underlying the demand for transport and the consequences of transport change. The potential of spatial microsimulation to model the impacts of demographic and socio-economic changes, as well as changes in housing supply upon transport flows in West and South Yorkshire and the East Midlands is discussed. It is argued that the approach that is adopted can be beneficial both in modelling terms and in allowing us to draw upon work done by demographers, geographers, economists. Moreover, it is argued that the modelling work presented here has an important potential to contribute to understanding the consequences of planning policy and to forecasting the impacts of possible future policies. The household location modelling project is being carried out by a consortium consisting of David Simmonds Consultancy, the University of Leeds School of Geography, MVA Consultancy, Professor Roger Mackett (University College London) and Mr Peter Headicar (Oxford Brookes University).