Implications of the United States Preventive Services Task Force Recommendations on Prostate Cancer Stage Migration

5071 Background: Prostate specific antigen (PSA) screening has been controversial, given unrefined screening guidelines leading to overdiagnosis and overtreatment of “indolent” PCa. In 2008, the USPSTF recommended against PSA screening for men aged ≥75 and in 2012 broadened this recommendation to include all men. The impact of these changes is unstudied. We hypothesize that these screening changes could delay the diagnosis of advanced PCa. Methods: The Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program (SEER) was used to identify men (age 55-69) diagnosed with PCa between 2004-2015. PCa stage was categorized as nodal (N1M0) and metastatic (NxM1). Trend analysis was stratified based on year 2004-2008 (group 1), 2009-2012 (group 2), and 2012-2015 (group 3). Using group 2 as a reference, multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors for N1M0 and NxM1 in each group. Results: From 2004-2015, there were 603,323 eligible men diagnosed with PCa (group 1: 262,240 men, group 2: 210,045 men, group 3: 131,038 men). In group 1, 1.4% had N1M0 and 2.8% had NxM1. In group 2, 1.6% had N1M0 and 3.7% had NxM1. In group 3, 1.4% had N1M0, and 6.1% had NxM1. The adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of N1M0 was 0.78 (95%CI 0.74-0.82; p<0.0001) in group 1 and 1.71 (95%CI 1.63-1.80; p<0.0001) in group 3. Similar AOR trends were seen in NxM1 (group 1, 0.71; 95%CI 0.68-0.73, p< 0.0001 vs. group 3, 1.70; 95% CI 1.63-1.75, p<0.0001). (Table) Subset analysis of non-eligible patients (age >70 and <55) showed a similar stage migration. Conclusions: With each USPSTF recommendation, there have been significantly more diagnoses of advanced PCa; suggesting stage migration. The sequelae of having advanced PCa include more aggressive treatments, increased financial burden, and reduced quality of life. Future population studies are warranted to investigate whether the updated 2018 USPSTF recommendation now encapsulates the best target population.[Table: see text]