SHELTER IN PLACE ORDER CONTAINED COVID 19 GROWTH RATE IN GREECE

Background The Greek authorities implemented the strong social distancing measures within the first few weeks after the first confirmed case of the virus to curtail the COVID-19 growth rate. Objectives To estimate the effect of the two-stage strong social distancing measures, the closure of all non-essential shopping centers and businesses on March 16 and the shelter in place orders (SIPOs) on March 23 on the COVID-19 growth rate in Greece Methods We obtained data on COVID-19 cases in Greece from February 26th through May 4th from publicly available sources. An interrupted time-series regression analysis was used to estimate the effect of the measures on the exponential growth of confirmed COVID-19 cases, controlling for the number of daily testing, and weekly fixed-effects. Results The growth rate of the COVID-19 cases in the pre-policies implementation period was positive as expected (p=0.003). Based on the estimates of the interrupted time-series, our results indicate that the SIPO on March 23 significantly slowed the growth rate of COVID-19 in Greece (p=0.04). However, we did not find evidence on the effectiveness of standalone and partial measures such as the non-essential business closures implemented on March 16 on the COVID-19 spread reduction. Discussion The combined social distancing measures implemented by the Greek authorities within the first few weeks after the first confirmed case of the virus reduced the COVID-19 growth rate. These findings provide evidence and highlight the effectiveness of these measures to flatten the curve and to slow the spread of the virus. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement NO FUNDING WAS RECEIVED FOR THIS STUDY ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: NA All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes DATA ARE PUBLICLY AVAILABLE ONLINE AND SOURCE IS CITED IN THE MANUSCRIPT