Policy Development for Pandemic Response Using System Dynamics: a Case Study on COVID-19

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has burdened several countries. Its high transmissibility and mortality rate have caused devastating impacts on human lives. This has led countries to implement control strategies, such as social distancing, travel bans, and community lockdowns, with varying levels of success. However, a disease outbreak can cause significant economic disruption from business closures and risk avoidance behaviors. This paper raises policy recommendations through a system dynamics modeling approach. The developed model captures relationships, feedbacks, and delays present in a disease transmission system. The dynamics of several policies are analyzed and assessed based on effectiveness in mitigating infection and the resulting economic strain.