Defensive Resource Allocation: The Roles Of Forecast Information And Risk Control

RISK ANALYSIS(2021)

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摘要
In defensive resource allocation problems, the defender usually collects some forecast information about the attacker. However, the forecast information may be incorrect, which means that there could be a risk associated with the defender using it in their decision making. In this article, we propose a forecast and risk control (FRC) framework to manage the risk in defensive resource allocation with forecast information. In the FRC framework, we introduce a new measure of risk and three types of defense plans: riskless defense plan, risky defense plan, and risk-control defense plan. Several desirable properties based on the concepts of reward and penalty show that the risk-control defense plan is a general form to support defensive resource allocation. Subsequently, we study a specific defensive allocation problem with forecast information and develop an optimization model that considers the forecast information and the defender's risk tolerance level in order to obtain the risk-control defense plan with maximum reward. Furthermore, we provide some numerical analysis to illustrate the effects of forecast information and risk tolerance level on the risk-control defense plan. Finally, a numerical case study is presented to demonstrate the usability of a risk-control defense plan.
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关键词
Forecast information, homeland security, resource allocation, risk control
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