Predicting Compartment-scale Climate Change Impacts Related to Southern Ocean Wave Forcing: Port Fairy, Victoria, Australia

On the southern coast of Australia one of the principle impacts of climate change will be a change in wave magnitude and direction resulting from intensification of the Southern Ocean storm systems. In Victoria, Australia, this is likely to cause significant change in sediment dynamics and possible shoreline re-orientation. In this paper, Port Fairy (western coast of Victoria) is used as a case study to explore the sensitivity of this embayment to changing wave climate conditions. Bed level change rates and spatially variable sediment transport rates are investigated. The results indicate that a southerly shift in the wave climate could intensify sediment transport processes and erosional patterns in this area.