Using Scenario-based Business Modelling to Explore the 5G Telecommunication Market

Innovative technologies often alter established value chains and make traditional strategic planning methods inadequate. In this paper, we present the use of scenario-based business modelling to explore the market for the fifth generation mobile communication networks (5G). We discuss four scenarios that have been developed in a collaborative effort among different actors in the market. We then describe the approach to build business models and discuss lessons learned and benefits from the novel approach. This approach complements traditional techniques through providing a powerful platform to integrate multi-dimensional change, from technology, regulation, value-chain dynamics, and value proposition evolution. We further conclude that the approach is particularly valuable in environments that are characterized by a high level of uncertainty and complexity.