Real Time Reliability Evaluation and Residual Life Prediction for Individual Product based on Gamma Degradation Process

In this paper, a real time reliability evaluation and residual life prediction methods for an individual product based on Gamma degradation process are studied. In order to obtain the real time reliability assessment, a conditional reliability model is established and a Bayesian updating theory is used to update the model parameters. In order to obtain the residual life of individual product, the lifetime distribution is approximated by using a Birnbaum-Saunders distribution. Considering the model is very complicated, the estimators of the unknown parameters are obtained via Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. At last, a numerical example about laser device is given to verify the validity of the present model and method.